| | Foreword by Lawrence D. Phillips | | |
Ch. 1 | | Introduction | | 1 |
Ch. 2 | | How people make decisions involving multiple objectives | | 13 |
Ch. 3 | | Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART | | 31 |
Ch. 4 | | Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART | | 63 |
Ch. 5 | | Introduction to probability | | 93 |
Ch. 6 | | Decision-making under uncertainty | | 115 |
Ch. 7 | | Decision trees and influence diagrams | | 157 |
Ch. 8 | | Applying simulation to decision problems | | 183 |
Ch. 9 | | Revising judgments in the light of new information | | 213 |
Ch. 10 | | Heuristics and biases in probability assessment | | 237 |
Ch. 11 | | Methods for eliciting probabilities | | 267 |
Ch. 12 | | Risk and uncertainty management | | 289 |
Ch. 13 | | Decisions involving groups of individuals | | 301 |
Ch. 14 | | Resource allocation and negotiation problems | | 325 |
Ch. 15 | | Decision framing and cognitive inertia | | 349 |
Ch. 16 | | Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty | | 369 |
Ch. 17 | | Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions | | 407 |
| | Suggested answers to selected questions | | 439 |
| | Index | | 445 |